Cromwell's rule

Meaning

Proper Noun

• A rule stating that the use of prior probabilities of 0 or 1 should be avoided, except when applied to statements that are logically true or false, so as to leave room for the possibility that something very unlikely is in fact the case.

Origin

• Named by statistician Dennis Lindley, in reference to Oliver Cromwell, who wrote in 1650: "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken."